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This Week In Rates · Week of May 18, 2026
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Your buyers are watching
the wrong scoreboard.
Rates just hit a nine-month high. Here’s what it means — and exactly what to say.
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Current Rates
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National averages, MBS Live. Actual rates vary by borrower profile and loan structure.
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What actually happened last week
Global conflict pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil means higher inflation expectations. Bond markets hate inflation, so yields rose. The 10-Year Treasury crossed 4.58% — its highest point in roughly a year — and mortgage rates followed.
Last Friday, markets were quietly hoping for a diplomatic opening on Iran out of the Trump-Xi summit. When that didn’t happen, bond yields spiked hard into the close. Traders stopped pricing in a quick resolution and started pricing in prolonged conflict, more government debt, and sustained uncertainty.
CPI and PPI data also came in hot last week. That didn’t cause the move — it confirmed it.
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The one thing your buyers need to hear
The Fed is a bystander right now. Rates are being moved by global conflict and inflation expectations — not by what Powell says. Waiting for a rate cut is waiting for the wrong thing.
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What this costs in real dollars
On a $400,000 loan, today’s rate of 6.65% means a monthly payment of roughly $2,570. At 6.00% — where rates were not long ago — that same loan was $2,398. That’s $172 more per month, or about $2,000 a year.
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That number is more useful to a nervous buyer than any explanation of bond yields. Use it.
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The script for this week
When a buyer texts you “should we wait for rates to come down?” — here’s what to send back:
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Text or email script — copy and send
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“Totally understand the hesitation. Quick thing worth knowing: rates right now aren’t being driven by the Fed — they’re moving because of global conflict and inflation. That means a Fed rate cut won’t fix this in the near term. The buyers I’m seeing stay in deals are the ones who focus on the purchase price they can negotiate today, not the rate they’re hoping for later. Happy to run the numbers on a specific home so you can see what the actual monthly difference looks like. Want me to do that?”
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The conversation that protects your deal
Last week’s rate spike means buyers are more anxious right now than they were 30 days ago. Anxious buyers make emotional decisions. The ones who walk usually weren’t surprised by the rate — they were surprised that nobody warned them it could move.
At contract signing this week, have one extra conversation: walk your buyer through what a normal transaction feels like, including the moments that feel stressful. Tell them bumps are expected and your job is to keep them informed, not shield them from reality.
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Buyers who understand the process stay calm under pressure. Buyers who feel caught off guard make emotional decisions. One conversation at the start protects the deal at the end.
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Agent Spotlight · Western New York
Jake Mattoon — HUNT Real Estate
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Serving clients across Niagara County, Jake continues to attract buyers looking for long-term stability, strong schools, quiet neighborhoods, and a true sense of community. He especially enjoys working with first-time buyers and growing families looking to put down roots in Western New York.
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A quick note
As of last Friday, I’m officially licensed as a mortgage loan originator in New York. If you have buyers who need someone who understands the market and speaks their language — I’d love to help. Reach out anytime.
— Troy Pulli · NMLS #2739716
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Rates sourced from MBS Live. For informational purposes only — not financial advice. Actual rates vary based on borrower profile, loan structure, and market timing.
Troy Pulli · NMLS #2739716
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